Find Loads For Pickup Trucks, Conflicting data clouds reality of the freight markets-As we noted last week, the month of December was marked by increasing uncertainty and a sharp decline in the American financial markets. Since then the valuation of shares has tried to recover, as well as the costs of many commodities. There are many theories, but nothing looks like a consensus vision.
The current closure of the government, the ultimate ‘wall construction’ of Trump, ongoing trade negotiations and a dispute over customs with China, as well as unresolved Brexit, contribute to uncertainty. Most bulls and bears of predictors seem to lose their conviction, regardless of the degree of conviction, and the only thing that increases is the degree of ambiguity that prevails in everyone’s perspective.
Commodity markets do not distribute the mess.
We often ignore a lot of general panic or uncertainty as a result of the instability of financial projects and the tendency of the media to sell their fears. Instead, we rely on data that is not affected by human emotions, data on the flow of physical resources lead us through the business cycle. Historically it served us well. Today, taking into account the general movement of goods, there is a general growth in North America, but with lower growth rates than the previous year.
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Goods flows in Europe and Asia, particularly in air traffic in the last two months, are a bit worrying, but they are not yet at the level of shrinking the “alarm signal”. That is why we are dealing with how, as we know, the American economy has predicted. UU. With the highest level of reliability and the longest period for information about prices and addresses: road transport. Unfortunately, there are currently some trends in the truck sector that, at least at first glance, are diametrically opposed. Fortunately, we believe that there is an explanation for apparent exclusion. The SONAR OUVI.USA index (output volume index) rose immediately after the normal week of the holiday (from December 25 to January 1) and has already returned to levels comparable to last year’s average. from last year. When we stop and think about it, we think it’s pretty impressive given the performance of last year. As we noted last week, OTVI is strong throughout the world and OTVI of some markets, such as Seattle, is at its peak in 2018. OTVI is impressive in itself. It seems to be a strong indicator for the demand for trucks in 2019. However, if you look at OTRI.USA (bid release rate), it fell in the second half of 2018. months. 2019 weeks The trend line of OTRI is diametrically opposed to the trend line of OTVI. Why would he offer an extremely large number of customs duties, and would there be almost no denial of costs? In other words, why would the carriers accept almost all the accusations that would have been proposed to them?
We believe that there are several simple factors at work:
Contract rates were significantly improved compared to last year and spot prices fell below contractual rates for a more standardized range. As a result, the price of the tariff paid for the shipments offered is high enough to be useful to the trucking company that delivers a truck and a driver.
Because the driving tariffs have improved, lorries have been added to the fleets, the use that was initially lost by the introduction of the LDC has been recovered and the average age of the lorry has increased. reduced; There is a higher capacity for transporting these loads in most parks.
Due to lower rates, the prices accepted by the airline can be agreed internally by the dealer at a profitable rate.
We also believe that there is another very real, but less obvious, factor. The breadth and depth of information available in the truck industry has grown steadily over the years. Data on lorries and load-bearing loads, however, increased significantly last year and expanded at retail level and it has been shown that small fleets (where there were no data) have increased with the introduction of the LDC. More data about trucks were needed to optimize their use and much more information about magazines ………
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